DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 02/01 06:15
Cattle Futures Expected Higher -- Maybe
Live cattle held the line with traders hesitant to push the market higher
prior to the release of the inventory report. Feeder cattle did not hesitate to
post gains due to lower corn. Hogs could not find aggressive buyer interest,
leaving futures mixed at the end of the day as traders waited for some news.
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Higher Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $198.57 -$0.75*
Hogs: Higher Futures: Higher Lean Equiv: $88.06 -$0.03**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
Even though the trade believed the Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory report would
show reduced cow and calf numbers, they hesitated to push the market higher.
They needed proof and waited for the report. The report supported what was
anticipated. The beef cow herd totaled 28.918 million head, which was down 4.0%
from a year ago. This was closely in line with what had been estimated and is
the lowest beef cow herd on record. With the actual being near the estimated,
the market may already have it factored in, leaving little reason for futures
to increase very much. However, the initial reaction will likely see higher
trade. Heifers for beef cow replacement declined 6.0%, totaling 5.164 million
head. The 2022 calf crop totaled 34.465 million head, which was above the
estimate of 34.173 million head. Boxed beef Tuesday was mixed with choice down
$2.01 and select up $1.40. Cash did not trade with asking prices posted in the
South at $158 and higher. Feeder cattle did not hesitate to move higher into
the report and from the weakness of corn futures.